1735

Background/Aim: Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is an environmental risk factor associated with worsening health outcomes, but limited work has explored its connection to nephrological disorders. Evidence suggests that geographical heterogeneities of chronic kidney disease (CKD) cannot be explained fully by patient level factors. We aimed to investigate the association between PM_2.5 and CKD in a 7-county metropolitan area in Minnesota.
Methods: We acquired data for 113,725 patients (2012-2014) from electronic health records who had measured glomerular function rate (eGFR). For each patient, we estimated the previous 1-year average PM_2.5 (ug/m³) from time of first eGFR at home locations. We evaluated the spatial relative risk and clustering of CKD prevalence using a K-function test statistic. We estimated the prevalence ratio (PR) of the association of PM_2.5 with CKD (eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m²) prevalence using a modified Poisson regression with robust error variance. We assessed the association of PM_2.5 with incident CKD in 20,289 patients who did not have CKD at baseline using a Cox proportional hazard models [Hazard rates (HR), 95% CI]. We adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, tract socioeconomic characteristics, and census tract.
Results: We identified neighborhoods for greater relative risk of CKD incidence and found that cases of CKD cluster significantly more than controls. We found no association between PM_2.5 and prevalent CKD, but did observe associations with more severe CKD (eGFR<45). With increasing PM_2.5 quartiles, incidence of CKD increased. Patients in the fourth quartile (PM_2.5>10.4), third quartile (10.3 < PM_2.5<10.8) and 2^nd quartile (9.9 < PM_2.5<10.3) vs. first quartile (PM_2.5<9.9) had a 2.52 [2.21, 2.87], 2.18 [1.95, 2.45], and 1.72 [1.52, 1.97] HR of developing CKD in the fully adjusted models, respectively.
Conclusion: Exposure to higher PM_2.5 is associated with greater risk for incident CKD. Improvements in air quality specifically at CKD hotspots may reduce kidney related disease.

2724

Background: Criminal behavior is a significant public health threat, serving as both cause and consequence of violent actions. Violent assaults constitute over 1 million emergency room visits annually and represent the 8^th leading cause of non-fatal injuries. However, the underlying environmental causes of violent behavior are still poorly understood. Our study investigates the role that daily temperature and temperature deviation plays on the risk of crime incidence. We further consider the ongoing debate as to whether temperature affects crime through a temperature-aggression relationship or by modifying routine activities.
Methods: We used a hierarchical time series model to estimate the risk of criminal behavior associated with daily temperature and daily departure from normal temperatures in 436 U.S. counties. Departure from normal temperatures denote the deviation of daily temperature from the expected conditions. Daily crime incidence was acquired from the FBI’s National Incidence Based Reporting System and daily weather data from gridMET. We explored seasonality of crime risks and estimated linear and non-linear exposure-response relationships.
Results: We found each 10°C increase in daily mean temperature increased the risk of violent crime by 11.92% (95% CI: 11.57, 12.27) and each 10°C increase in departure from normal temperatures increased violent crime risk by 10.37% (95% CI: 10.05, 10.69). The exposure response curve revealed increasing risk with absolute daily temperature until flattening off above 25°C. For departure from normal temperatures, we observed a strong linear relationship with crime, and significantly higher risk during fall and winter seasons. Similar overall effects, but with lower risk, were observed for non-violent property crime.
Conclusions: Our results suggest that short-term changes in daily temperature may be associated with greater risk of criminal behavior. Based on the exposure-response curves and seasonal trends, our findings provide evidence of a routine activities pathway, rather than the temperature-aggression hypothesis.