1885

Recent meta-analyses of epidemiological studies conducted in North America, Latin America, Europe, and East Asia show that traffic-related nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution is associated with pediatric asthma incidence. Using concentration-response relationships from these meta-analyses, traffic-related NO2 has been estimated to be responsible for 13% (~4 million) of new pediatric asthma cases globally. The objective of this study is to estimate surface ambient annual average NO2 concentrations and associated pediatric asthma burdens from 2005 to 2019 in urban areas worldwide. We estimate 15-year trends in population exposure to NO2 with global coverage at 1km resolution using 2010-2012 NO2 concentrations from a previously published land use regression model, along with satellite remote sensing observations of NO2 columns from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument. We use epidemiologically-derived concentration-response factors to estimate temporal trends in NO2-attributable pediatric asthma incidence in hundreds of cities worldwide. Results include 2005-2019 trends in NO2 concentrations and the associated burden on pediatric asthma incidence in major cities around the world, including major reductions in places with strong emission regulations and increases in areas experiencing rapid economic growth without effective emission controls. Results may be informative for data-driven decision-making about mitigating the public health impacts of air pollution in urban areas, where two-thirds of the global population is expected to live by 2050.