Abstract Body

Ports have always been evolving to satisfy the new or changing demands of stakeholders. In this unstable world, ports as dynamic and ever-increasing complex systems are developed under a high degree of uncertainty. Furthermore, unpredictable events (e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic) have significant impacts on the port’s ecosystem. Consequently, the surrounding community, particularly in port cities, can be highly affected by unexpected changes.

To ensure the functionality of the ports through adaptation to different requirements, dealing with uncertainty, and improving flexibility should be accounted for in the planning process. Therefore, this study presents a structured framework to deal with uncertainties in the port planning process. To develop the framework, stakeholder analysis, different methods of addressing uncertain developments, and SWOT analysis are used. To devise flexibility, effective actions including mitigating, hedging, shaping, and seizing actions are incorporated in the plan. These actions either manage vulnerabilities or seize opportunities, and are aimed at protecting the plan against failures and moving it toward its success. The framework was developed for the Ports of Isafjordur Network in Iceland. The network is the third busiest port of call for cruise ships in Iceland with a considerable increase in the number of cruise calls in the last few years. Furthermore, fishing and aquaculture activities are the mainstays of the port network.

The results show that aquaculture and cruise activities create the main uncertainties for the port network. In the middle-term horizon, the port network is confronted with multiple vulnerabilities due to a lack of infrastructure and land in the port network to satisfy the demands of the increasing number of port users. The reduction in landside accessibility and deterioration of port-city relations can be handled by effective and efficient use of land, improving the living environment, and optimal distribution and decentralization of port activities in the port network. The adaptive nature of the plan results in a flexible port that allows the port and city to jointly evolve.