Abstract Body

Cities are nodes of economic and social activity, with great impact on the environment. They serve as important points of intervention for sustainable development, and cities are looking for strategies to tackle issues in three domains: social, economic and environmental. Urban development research and policy often focuses on specific issues, such as the environment, poverty and energy. These issues are typically addressed within siloed structures in both research and in practice by designated departments. However, the achievement of goals within the different domains are strongly interlinked, with the relationships between them forming a complex urban system. Therefore, a systemic perspective is useful for achieving urban sustainability goals. Dynamic analysis improves understanding of how multiple interventions can interact, creating synergies, and identifying possible trade-offs between different goals. Understanding the urban system requires not only an inter- but also transdisciplinary approach. System Dynamics, rooted in Systems Thinking, is well suited for addressing urban sustainability holistically. In 1969, pioneering System Dynamicist Jay Forrester published his seminal book Urban Dynamics, developing an urban development model including the interactions across some aspects of these domains. Working closely with urban planners, they found that commonly accepted policies intending to reduce urban poverty, such as job creation programs and low-cost housing, contributed significantly to urban blight in the long-term. With the continued progress of System Dynamics since then, and its ability to model complex socioeconomic environments and decision-making structure, it is even better suited today to support inter- and transdisciplinary research. We aim to show how the application of System Dynamics in urban planning can improve sustainability in cities through: 1) quantitative and qualitative methods allowing for the comprehension of each domain and their interlinkages; 2) scenario exploration that enables analysis of the emerging synergies and tradeoffs for achieving specific goals; and 3) identifying and understanding leverage points (key areas that are impeding the achievement of targets) for transformation. We provide both a research-based overview of the strengths and weaknesses of this method for sustainable urban development and, by working directly with cities, provide insights from two practical case studies.