Abstract Body

Climate change has far-reaching implications for economic and social stability, including loss of services and security, affecting quality and quantity of lives. Heat waves are among potential hazards expected to increase with climate change, affecting human lives and economies. Here, I will identify countries that are most at risk for heat waves due to siting of highest density populations in warmer locations than exurban populations. Conversely, countries with highest density populations in cooler locations may help offset the urban heat island effect. I will demonstrate the trajectory of warming temperatures in different population densities under the mildest expected temperature increase during 2021-2040 and Shared Socio-economic Pathway 1-2.6, and the greatest expected temperature increase during 2081-2100 and Shared Socio-economic Pathway 5-8.5. Temperature and temperature change of high-density population siting have consequences for landscape-based regional urban development and climate adaptation, adaptive urban landscape planning and design, resilient communities, critical infrastructure and extreme events, emergency preparedness and response, and also may influence which countries may have the greatest migration in response to climate change.