A. Van Der Walt

Central Clinical School, Monash University Department of Neuroscience

Author Of 2 Presentations

 Program
Epidemiology Oral Presentation

PS05.02 - Validation of three Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis classification methods in five registries within the SPMS Research Collaboration Network

Speakers
Authors
Presentation Number
PS05.02
Presentation Topic
Epidemiology
Lecture Time
13:15 - 13:27

Abstract

Background

Assigning Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (SPMS) course consistently is challenging as it is based on a gradual worsening in neurological disability independent of relapses. Clinical SPMS assignment may therefore vary between registries depending on clinical practice. Consequently, a comparison of SPMS between registries would benefit from an objective definition of SPMS.

Objectives

To validate three different methods for classifying patients into Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) or SPMS, compared to the clinical assignment, in five European Multiple Sclerosis (MS) registries.

Methods

Data from MS registries in Czech Republic (11,336 patients), Denmark (10,255 patients), Germany (23,185 patients), Sweden (11,247 patients), and the United Kingdom (UK) (5,086 patients) were used. Patients with either RRMS or SPMS, age ≥ 18 years at index date (date with the latest Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) observation) were included. Index period was 01/2017 - 12/2019. Three EDSS centric classification methods were applied; method 1: a modified real world EXPAND criteria (Kappos, L. et al., 2018. The Lancet 391(10127), 2018), method 2: the data-derived definition from Melbourne University but without pyramidal Functional Score (Lorscheider, J. et al., 2016. Brain 139(9)), method 3: the decision tree classifier from Karolinska Institutet (Ramanujam, R. et al., 2020. medRxiv, 2020.07.09.20149674). The classifications were compared to the clinical assignment, where sensitivity (SPMS as true positive), specificity (RRMS as true negative) and accuracy were calculated as similarity measurements.

Results

The overall classification performance (sensitivity, specificity, accuracy) among classifiable patients were; method 1: (0.47, 0.85, 0.79), method 2: (0.77, 0.87, 0.85), method 3: (0.84, 0.83, 0.84). The proportions of unclassifiable patients with each method were; method 1: 20.0%, method 2: 32.2%, method 3: 0%. Methods 2 & 3 provided a high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy, while method 1 provided high specificity but low sensitivity. Method 3 was the only method having no unclassifiable patients.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that these methods can be used to objectively assign SPMS with a fairly high performance in different registries. The method of choice depends on the research question and to what degree unclassifiable patients are tolerable.

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Gender Differences, Hormones and Sex Chromosomes Oral Presentation

PS12.04 - Pregnancy in a modern day multiple sclerosis cohort: Predictors of relapse during pregnancy

Speakers
Authors
Presentation Number
PS12.04
Presentation Topic
Gender Differences, Hormones and Sex Chromosomes
Lecture Time
10:00 - 10:12

Abstract

Background

Historically, disease activity diminished during pregnancy in women with relapsing-remitting MS. Today, women with high disease activity are more likely to attempt pregnancy due to the disease control that new therapies offer. But disease activity during pregnancy in the modern day remains understudied.

Objectives

Describe disease activity in a modern pregnancy cohort, grouped by preconception disease-modifying therapy (DMT) class; determine the predictors of relapse during pregnancy.

Methods

Data were obtained from the MSBase Registry. Term/preterm pregnancies conceived from 2011-2019 were included. DMT were classed by low, moderate and high-efficacy. Annualized relapse rates (ARR) were calculated for each pregnancy trimester and 12 months either side. Predictors of relapse during pregnancy were determined using clustered logistic regression.

Results

We included 1640 pregnancies from 1452 women. DMT used in the year before conception were none (n=346), low (n=845), moderate (n=207) and high-efficacy (n=242). Most common DMT in each class was interferon-beta (n=597), fingolimod (n=147) and natalizumab (n=219) for low, moderate and high-efficacy respectively. Conception EDSS ≥2 was more common in higher efficacy DMT groups (high: 41.3%; moderate 28.5%; low 22.4%; none 20.2%). For low-efficacy and no DMT groups, ARR fell through pregnancy. ARR of the moderate-efficacy group increased in the 1st pregnancy trimester (0.55 [95% CI 0.36-0.80] vs 0.14 [95% CI 0.10-0.21] on low-efficacy), then decreased to a trough in the third. Conversely, ARR steadily increased throughout pregnancy for those on high-efficacy DMT (3rd trimester: 0.42 [95% CI 0.25-0.66] vs 0.12 [95% CI 0.07-0.19] on low-efficacy). Higher efficacy DMT groups were associated with higher ARR in the early postpartum period (high: 0.84 [95% CI 0.62-1.1]; moderate: 0.90 [95% CI 0.65-1.2]; low: 0.47 [95% CI 0.38-0.58]). Preconception use of high and moderate-efficacy DMT and higher preconception ARR were predictors of relapse in pregnancy. But, continuation of high-efficacy DMT into pregnancy was protective against relapse (odds ratio 0.80 [95% CI 0.68-0.94]). Age ≥35 years was associated with reduced odds of relapse.

Conclusions

Women with RRMS treated with moderate or high-efficacy DMT are at greater risk of relapse during pregnancy. Careful pregnancy management, and use of long-acting high-efficacy DMT preconception, or continuing natalizumab into pregnancy, may prevent relapse in pregnancy.

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